The GOP was supposed to be destroyed in 2026. The data is starting to say otherwise, however, as Republicans have seen a massive surge since Trump’s State of the Union (SOTU) address.
The party faces a near-impossible task of holding the House with a razor-thin advantage heading into the first midterm election after a change in party in the White House.
The party in power has only held power twice in the last 90 years, but these were very special circumstances, which I doubt we will see here.
I have covered the history of midterm elections in prior reports, so I don’t want to bore our loyal readers, as they can skip to the next section. For the rest of you, I will keep this as brief and informative as I can.
During the 1934 midterm elections, Franklin D. Roosevelt picked up nine seats for his party amid the Great Depression.
During the 2002 midterm elections, George W. Bush picked up eight seats amid the war on terror after our country was brutally attacked on 9/11.
During Trump’s first term, he lost 40 seats in the House during midterm elections, which was bad, but not quite as bad as Obama losing 63 during his first midterm, which stands as the single biggest loss by an incoming party.
With the current majority, Republicans have no room to spare, so this could wind up being a record-breaking loss if the voters in this country do not approve of Operation Epic Fury, the immigration crackdown, and the economy.
Trump is polling at or near record lows, and with Democrats putting the pedal to the metal on the Iran strike, that is likely to go lower.
This is not 2018, however, when there were 75 races that were deemed to be competitive.
This time around, there are fewer than two dozen seats that are truly deemed to be up for grabs in the midterm election. Even if the GOP loses every one of those races and throws in a handful of upsets, the House would not be out of reach in 2028 or 2030.
I don’t want to create false optimism here, but recent polling has shown a surge in support for the Republican Party, with the Harvard Harris poll making it a dead heat in generic polling for the midterm election.
White House Deputy Chief of Staff for Legislative, Political, and Public Affairs James Blair explained, “First and foremost, we have a record and a clear contrast. We can point very clearly to what things were like two years ago, and the American people remember that: eight percent interest rates for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage; now they’re under six percent. Five dollar an average gallon of gas. Now it’s under $2.50. We have real wages increasing, outpacing inflation.
“Joe Biden had real wages decreasing $3,000 a year, you know, with inflation far outstripping wage growth and price hikes and all of that. The Democrats gave us this economic nightmare that we inherited, and we are now turning around.”
If voters can put aside their hatred for Trump, they will see that the country is in a better position right now, and it appears to be headed in the right direction. Ben Harris, vice president and director of Economic Studies at Brookings, had to concede that economic experts and models got this wrong, stating, "Perhaps mainstream economic models are simply wrong. Is it possible the economics profession overstated the value of immigration, free trade, Fed independence, and a sustainable fiscal outlook?"
If Dems win either chamber, we are in a holding pattern for the next two years. If they win the House specifically, we have to relive the impeachment fiasco of Trump’s first term. I just beg voters to vote with their heads, not their hearts. Nothing good ever comes from putting emotion before reason.
