Over the last few years, we have seen something that is a bit odd in deep red and deep blue states.
While one party dominated the legislature, the other party wins the governor’s mansion.
In this upcoming cycle, we could see more of that, with the most interesting race being in California, where Republican Steve Hilton is now the frontrunner with a comfortable margin.
To me, this is almost as though voters are creating checks and balances on their own.
As an example, Kentucky, which is considered a deep red state, has a Democrat governor in Andy Beshear.
When Beshear was asked about being a crossover governor, he responded, “There are no red or blue bridges, and a job isn't Democrat or Republican. My No. 1 and overall goal, provided I win reelection, is just to be the best governor I can be for all Kentuckians, regardless of party.”
While this was far more common at one point, there are now fewer than 10 crossover governors in the country, but that could change quite a bit during this upcoming cycle.
The race in California to replace term-limited Gavin Newsom is getting a lot more interesting since the collapse of former Rep. Katie Porter (D-CA).
Once Kamala Harris decided not to run, this seemed like a lock for Porter, but her campaign imploded after several videos of her surfaced showing her having a meltdown of one sort or another.
Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-CA) then entered the race and became the Democrat frontrunner in the open primary, but he is still trailing Hilton, who has now jumped out to a four-point lead.
Oddly enough, tied with Swalwell for second place is another Republican, Chad Bianco, so there is actually the possibility of an all-Republican runoff election here. The challenge here for Hilton is to rally enough of the undecided voters (21%) to offset all the Democrat voters likely to fall in line with Swalwell if he makes it out of the first round.
CNN’s senior data analyst, Harry Enten, seems to think that the Democrats have some challenges in this cycle if they want to hold on to mansion keys.
He stated, “Look at this, a majority, a majority, 26. That is, at this point, the number of governors that are expected at least tilting towards the Republican Party at this point.”
He later added, “So this should stand as a major wake-up call to Democrats, because if there’s a wave building, it has not, at least at this point, hit the state level when it comes to governorships.”
If the GOP can pull off California, it would be a positive sign for the presidential election in 2028. I don’t see how the GOP can hold the House in the 2026 cycle, but if they can hold the Senate to block Dems in the House, they could flip it back in 2028, and, hopefully, keep the White House in conservative hands.
