Last week, one of the bigger stories of the news cycle was the announcement from Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-TX) that she would be running for a Senate seat.
The lawmaker is leaving the safety of her House seat behind in an election where she is not even guaranteed to win her own primary race.
Crockett was surely expecting the Democrat Party to enthusiastically embrace her run, but things are not going quite as planned.
Before Crockett got into the race, an up-and-coming Democrat star, state Rep. James Talarico, appeared as though he would get the nod in the primary race.
Talarico was leading the Democrat primary field, and while he was down in matchups against all GOP primary candidates in a general election poll, he was within a few points of every one of them. Then the race was turned upside down by Crockett.
In her announcement speech, she stated, "This is why I’m running. Because Texans deserve a government that works for them, one that lowers costs, protects rights and gives every family a fair shot. I’m running to make sure the people, not the powerful, decide the future of this state."
The funny thing about this is that Crockett has done virtually nothing as a legislator in Congress, and she has not even hidden the fact that her primary motivation is to block Donald Trump.
Crockett hit the ground running, already shaking up the primary polls after she officially joined the race. In the first surveys conducted after her announcement, she was holding an eight-point lead over Talarico, but we expected that to happen, and it is best to wait a month or so to let the newness of her campaign wear off before we get a true picture of where these two candidates truly stand.
According to longtime Democrat strategist James Carville, Crockett has already made a major misstep in her campaign, stating, “First of all, she seems like she’s well-educated. Seems like she’s got a lot of energy. But she, to me, she violates the first rule of politics and that is, in politics, you always make it about the voters and never about yourself.”
When House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) was asked about Crockett’s campaign, he responded, “I’m absolutely delighted that Jasmine Crockett is running for Senate in Texas. I think it’s one of the greatest things that’s happened to the Republican Party in a long, long time.”
I would not dismiss Crockett's campaign so quickly, but I truly do not think my fellow Texans are going to fall for what is a clear act on her part. It may work among constituents of her current district, but her fake accent and tough-guy persona are not going to pull any conservatives or moderates to cross the aisle to vote for her.
House Democrats did not seem too enthused about Crockett’s ability to win a general election, but they also knew that if they put their name on such a statement of doubt, the progressive machine would unleash on them.
For instance, one Democrat stated, "She might win a primary, but she ain't winning a general in Texas.”
Another added, "It's concerning for [swing] districts ... I think it's a bad decision.”
I just hope Republicans don’t get too overconfident if Crockett comes out of the primary with a win. I think it would potentially be a single-digit win for the GOP regardless of who she runs against, but Republicans cannot just mail this one in and expect to prevail. If they do, they could put this seat at risk, and we just cannot afford to lose a seat in Texas. That would be unforgivable.
